One Begins to Understand Russia


The US President Barack Obama announced the radical revision of the plans of the ABM system creation and refusal to deploy the ABM units in the Eastern Europe, which was the main obstacle in the development of relations between the Russian Federation and the USA.The American leader’s decision is an evidence of the new American administration’s understanding of Russia’s striving for participation in the European security system creation.

The background of the ABM units deployment by the US in the Eastern Europe began in 2000, when the Pentagon had prepared a document that became known as “Joint vision 2020”, under which a doctrine “Supremacy on all fronts” was adopted. This was when neoconservative hawks commanded in the White House insisting that there must be enough American power to “dissuade” any country from challenging the US global supremacy. Just at that time, according to experts, for the first time a project appeared of deployment of the anti-ballistic missile units near Russia’s borders upon the pretext of struggle against mythical Iranian missiles. ABM creation in Eastern Europe included installation of ten air-defence interceptors till 2013 in Poland and a radar by 2011 in Czechia, which constituted a real threat for the Russian deterrence forces and complicated relations between Russia and the USA.

In this connection Moscow notified the White House more than once that it considers the deployment of the anti-ballistic missile units in Eastern Europe, as some sort of red line followed by a new round of the arms race. All explanations of the Pentagon that antimissiles in Poland and a radar in Czechia are necessary for defence against the Iranian nuclear threat, were called groundless by Russian experts. The Russian party considered a possibility of the Iskander missile systems deployment in Kaliningradskaya oblast as retaliatory measures. Moscow also suggested more than once using the located in Azerbaijan Gabalinsk radar station for joint defence against a supposed missile attack on the part of Iran. But the White House did not hear Russia and fobbed it off with general promises to think of its initiatives.

A new thinking has come to the White House with the president Barack Obama who made a decision on refusal to deploy the ABM units in Eastern Europe. And all that with the assumption that the East European countries had exerted considerable pressure upon the new US administration. Suffice it to mention that the recent letter by 22 former leaders of the Central and Eastern European states adjuring Obama not to leave their countries and defense them against Russia. It was antiballistic missile defense that was figuring as a key element of defence. Nevertheless, the White House did not consider the retirees’s advices.

A major reason that urged the US administration to upset its once most devoted satellites in Europe, became the radical revision of all American foreign-policy strategy and an in-depth seven-month study of problems connected with the deployment of ABM units in Czechia and Poland.

Barrack Obama’s decision to refuse to deploy the ABM elements in Eastern Europe was accepted after serious consultations with militaries. American intelligence services confirmed to the head of state that Iran since 2003 has not resumed the nuclear arms program. And Iranian centrifuges are not capable to create highly enriched uranium for technical reasons at least till 2010.

The development of Iranian missile program turned out less intensive than had been expected. As the American expert General Cartwright said in this connection, “we had believed that intercontinental ballistic missiles appearance in Iran would happen faster. Reality is the following: they will appear not so rapid, as we thought.”

Of course, a certain role was played by the economic crisis that affected the USA and reduced possibilities of financing a number of military programs of the Pentagon, especially, if they can be replaced by cheaper and more effective ones.

Alongside with that a refusal to deploy the ABM units in Poland and Czechia does not mean at all that the United States entirely abandoned the ABM plans. Americans will simply replace the expensive and doubtful ABM project by a new system that, according to B.Obama, “will ensure more reliable, well thought-out and quick defence of the USA and its allies.”

Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates in this connection explained that the USA does not refuse to develop the ABM system completely, but the accent is carried from defence against long-range missiles to regional scale threats, i.e. defence against missiles capable to strike Israel or the countries of Europe. Iran is just striving today in a greater degree for creation of short-range missiles, but not intercontinental ones.

According to the new plan, for defence against Iran’s rocket threat ships with sea-based antimissiles will be used, and the deployment of surface complexes is postponed till 2015. Pentagon chief said that currently an opportunity has arisen to deploy the ABM new forces and means in the north and south of Europe and in the nearest future they will be sufficient to ensure defence against direct rocket threat on the part of Iran and other countries. It is supposed that in the Mediterranean and the North Sea at least three ships of the United States Navy with Standard Missile 3 will patrolling in the interest of antimissile defense, furthermore their number can be increased as necessary. Plans for 2015 concerning the superficial part of the system, provide for the deployment of ground-based Standard Missiles 3.

Robert M. Gates also underlined that in accordance with the new concept mobile means for short- and intermediate-range missile systems will be used.

According to the statement of James Cartwright, the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Stafff of the US Armed forces, a territory “nearer the Caucasus” can become an alternative to deployment of the ABM units in Poland and Czechia. At the same time a reservation is made that the question is not about the deployment of the ABM units in Georgia – nearer to this region United States ships will be situated equipped with the Aegis ABM system. Territories alternative to Poland and Czechia for the deployment of surface ABM missiles under the new plan are called Turkey, Romania and Israel.

New ABM plans were welcomed by NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen. “I have the impression that the American anti-missile defence plan in the future will involve NATO to a far greater degree. This is a positive step towards the comprehensive and transparent process that will be on behalf of NATO,” said NATO Secretary General to journalists in Brussels.

The US President’s decision was completely approved by the President of France Nicolas Sarkozy, German chancellor Angela Merkel, Prime Minister of Great Britain Gordon Brown, leaders of a number of other NATO member states. Alongside with that the news from the White House was received with irritation in the

Eastern Europe and Baltic states. In Warsaw the time chosen by Americans for such a decision is taken especially painfully, because it coincided with the 70th anniversary of the Soviet encroachment upon the Eastern Poland. And Head of the Polish National Security Bureau Aleksander Schiglo expressed an opinion that B.Obama’s decision means the failure of the American long-term strategy in Eastern Europe. In his turn the former Polish Prime Minister L.Miller said that “Polish authorities learn a painful lesson from the real and not provincial policy.” According to him, “Obama has thrown away rhetoric of L.Kachinsky and other Polish politicians taking Moscow as major enemy.”

At the same time it is a fact that the US President when making a decision on refusal of ABM in Poland and Czechia, in deed and not in name showed the understanding of the importance of good relations with Russia, striving for taking into account its opinion when forming the world security system.

And it was noticed in the Kremlin. The President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev, having called Barack Obama’s decision a “constructive step in the proper direction,” expressed the readiness to discuss with the USA “a joint work on risk assessment of missiles distribution in the world.” “The declaration shows that conditions are not bad for such work , ...we appreciate the US President’s responsible approach to our arrangements implementation, I am ready to continue the dialogue,” said Head of the Russian State.

In whole the United States’ decision shows, on the one part, more objective appraisal of the situation in Iran, and on the other part – a serious attitude towards strategic dialogue between Russia and the USA, as the major factor of the maintenance of global stability. As is noted by Head of the Russian Duma Foreign Affairs Committee Konstantin Kosachev, “Obama’s administration begins to understand Russia. …This is perfectly a dialogue …perception of Russia and its arguments.”

Following the United States’ refusal to deploy the ABM units in Poland and Czechia productive Russian-American talks may be expected on issues such as making of a new strategic nuclear forces contract, struggle against proliferation of nuclear weapon and cooperation on the Afghan subject. All that will unconditionally have a positive impact on the development of Russian-American relations in whole, constructive dialogue between Russia and the United States.
2009-10-02 12:16
A.Novik